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That modesty of vision isn’t a handicap. It’s precisely why ARKit apps usually tend to catch on where other, more ambitious approaches have failed. It’s easy to forget, amid all of the overheated rhetoric and consciousness-expanding possibilities, but most individuals don’t want technology to usher them into a wholly latest plane of existence. They just want it to resolve problems and make their lives easier.
Call it the Inductive Theory of Platform Development—successful consumer technologies don’t start with grand ideas that trickle down into products. They begin as small solutions that expand to turn out to be grand ideas. Facebook didn’t got down to turn out to be probably the most powerful force in digital media; it began as a way for faculty kids to attach with each other. The iPhone began life as a straightforward MP3 player, only later evolving to incorporate iTunes, voice calls, web access, after which the App Store.
Something similar could also be at work here. Before ARKit, probably the most successful AR experiments were Snapchat’s Spectacles—which simply gave users a brand new lens through which to experience its app—and Pokémon Go. “They made it feel like people were doing normal things in a rather more fun and different way,” says Josh Elman of Greylock Partners. “It was like a toy as a substitute of a complete latest world.” (Compare that to Google Glass, an ambitious always-on AR device that never found a killer app—unless you define that as “an app that may get you killed.”)
It wouldn’t be the primary time that the iPhone redefined a medium by making a more modest alternative. The videogame industry was dominated by expensive, complicated console games until the iPhone introduced the concept of low-stakes “casual” games like Candy Crush and Angry Birds.
Some observers think ARKit is only a gateway drug, a primary step that leads inevitably to the Magic Leapening. Andreessen Horowitz’s Chris Dixon tweeted that ARKit is “an amazing stepping stone” toward “full VR/AR experiences.” Sam Dauntesq, who runs the @MadeWithARKit Twitter feed, expects that AR will inevitably make the leap from phone screens to glasses, a everlasting digital overlay to the world. Apple may agree with him. The company has long been considered constructing ARKit-enabled glasses, a rumor that Miesnieks says is “one hundred pc” true. “I’ve spoken to individuals who have held and used the prototypes of them,” he says. Apple declined to comment.
So possibly ultimately AR will look something like what its most ambitious advocates predict: stuck to our faces, at all times on, providing a lens right into a world we will scarcely imagine. But if we ever get there, it won’t begin with grand visions and jaw-dropping demos. Progress will occur little by little, piece by piece, one problem at a time. You’ll give you the option to measure it in inches.
1 UPDATE: 1:51 PM 8/17/17 This story was updated to accurately describe Matthew Miesnieks’ role at Samsung.
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