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Since 2012, the Oculus Rift has been the poster child for virtual reality—a standing that was upgraded immeasurable last yr when Facebook (FB) bought Oculus for $2 billion. Now VR enthusiasts are waiting to learn exactly after they can own one, but the corporate continues to play coy.
Many expected Oculus founder Palmer Luckey to announce the system’s launch date and price during The Game Awards on Thursday night. Instead, he showcased an upcoming game called Rock Band VR. Oculus, though, has not modified its position that pre-orders for the system will begin before the top of the yr, and Palmer reiterated the Q1 2016 launch date on the show.
As the VR world continues to attend for the Rift, it seems the general public has develop into seemingly distracted by the Gear VR, a product resulting from a partnership between Oculus and Samsung (SSNLF). While no official figures can be found for that system, it appears to be selling briskly, with Amazon (AMZN) unable to maintain it in stock and Samsung’s own site saying it may well not guarantee delivery by Dec. 25.
Also warming up on deck for next yr is The Vive, a VR headset by HTC and Valve, in addition to Sony’s (SNE) PlayStation VR (formerly often known as Project Morpheus). Both products lack firm launch dates, but will likely be ready for delivery in the primary half of next yr.
Virtual reality is actually an enormous advancement, each technologically and for the entertainment industry, but analysts warn that despite the anticipated media blitz and proclamations that 2016 is the yr of VR (and, perhaps, augmented reality as well, depending on what Microsoft does with Hololens), it’s going to be a slow start.
“To over use the not used often enough baseball analogy, we don’t even think we’re in the primary inning yet,” says Ben Schachter of Macquarie Capital. “For VR/AR, we’ve just pulled into the parking zone and tailgating is about to start. Samsung just arrived with a six-pack of Bud Light, Facebook (FB) called and is bringing a brand new microbrew, and Sony might bring a more mass-market palatable ale. By the top of 2016, we’ll have a greater sense of what’s been brewing at Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and maybe Apple (AAPL) might even stop by simply to see where that is all going. Only after 2016 will the VR/AR game begin.”
Sony, meanwhile, is anticipated to indicate off more of its VR technology this weekend at its PlayStation Experience fan event, which incorporates first looks at unannounced games that can soon launch. Valve and HTC have largely gone into quite mode after missing their scheduled 2015 industrial launch and HTC’s ongoing financial troubles.
Content is critical for VR, especially within the gaming space. While developer kits have been around for a while, expectations for true breakthrough titles are still fairly low on all fronts, despite the reported $4 billion investors have put into the sector.
“It is … inevitable that a few of these devices will overpromise and under deliver,” says Schachter. “Yet, once these devices begin to get into consumers hands and developers launch content that moves beyond the ‘wow’ moment and into uniquely, useful experiences, it’s going to be clear that entertainment, communication, and plenty of enterprise functions will change dramatically over the approaching decade as VR/AR evolve.”
Even developers who’re pouring resources into creating VR games say they expect the technology to be on a slow curve trajectory upwards.
“We’re taking a cautionary view for the primary three years,” says Hilmar Pétursson, CEO of CCP Games, which has 40 people in three studios working on VR projects. “When you’re early to a market like this, it’s extremely common to overestimate what happens in the primary 10 years and underestimate what happens in the subsequent 10. … It’s hard to wind back the clock, but it surely’s much easier to fast forward.”
However, some analysts are a bit more optimistic: Piper Jaffray analyst Travis Jakel says that by the top of 2016, there may very well be 12.2 million VR headsets in homes. He expects Rift sales to are available at 3.6 million and Gear VR to hit 5 million. Vive, meanwhile, is estimated to sell 2.1 million units, while PlayStation VR is slated to sell 1.4 million.
Each VR system has its own benefits that ought to make the 2016 battle interesting. Oculus has the deep pockets of Facebook behind it, which could lead to a subsidized headset, aiding consumer adoption. Vive’s association with Valve gives the headset a link to Steam, the biggest PC gaming distribution system with over 125 million lively users. Meanwhile, PlayStation VR is the one system designed for consoles, ensuring that players get a consistent experience that’s not reliant on their PC’s graphics and computer processing power.
“It has a whole lot of buzz,” says Liam Callahan, games industry analyst for The NPD Group. “We’ve been promised VR culturally, whether it’s the holodeck in Star Trek or the Danger Room in X-Men, for a very long time. And the actual fact is: We’re on the doorstep of it.”
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